The Reasons Saudi Investment Hasn't Turned The Magpies into Title Challengers

The Newcastle manager is not prone to dramatics or grand public pronouncements. Based on his standards, his media briefing after the weekend's loss to West Ham qualifies as a furious tirade. His side took an early lead but West Ham were ahead by half-time, while also hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to execute a three substitutions at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I think this indicated of our performance level at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. In fact, I don’t think I have since I’ve been head coach of Newcastle, so I felt the team required some shaking up at the break. That’s why I did those decisions.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth were substituted at the interval and the team managed to steady to an extent in the second half, without ever really looking like they might fight back into the contest against an opponent that had won only one of their previous nine league matches. Considering the congestion the centre of the standings currently is, with a mere three-point gap dividing third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between the upper and lower ranks, a run of 12 points from ten matches has not placed Newcastle stranded but, similarly, they cannot finish the season in thirteenth place.

The Issue of Perception

The problem partially is one of perception. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Newcastle possess the richest owners in the world. The expectation at the time the PIF bought 80% of the club in recent years was that it would have a transformative effect, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or the City Group had at Manchester City. The distinction is that those two investors assumed control before the advent of financial fair play regulations (and the ongoing allegations against Manchester City concern whether they violated those guidelines after they were implemented).

Financial restrictions restrict the capacity of proprietors, no matter how wealthy, to spend money on their squads and so in that sense probably would have hindered every Saudi effort to raise the team to the level of Manchester City. But it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s expenditure to have been quite as cautious as it has been; they might have spent more and stayed inside the threshold – or just accepted a fairly minor European penalty since their big issue is primarily with the European than the domestic regulation.

Stadium Investment and Financial Regulations

Additionally, infrastructure spending is exempted from PSR assessments; the easiest method to raise income to create additional financial flexibility would be to extend or redevelop the stadium. Given the site of the home ground, with listed buildings on two sides, in reality that probably means building an entirely new venue. There was talk in March of possibly undertaking the short move to Leazes Park – opposition from community organizations could surely have been overcome with a promise to build a replacement green space on the existing stadium site – but there has not been no movement on that proposal. There has occurred significant cutbacks from the Saudi fund on a range of projects as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the approach to the football club appears completely in alignment with that change of approach.

Player Sales Situation

The Alexander Isak episode was arose from that tension. A more confident management could have portrayed his transfer as essential to free up funds for additional spending; instead there was a vain effort to retain him. This resulted in the team began the season amid a sense of frustration even with the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: a single victory in their first six fixtures.

Yet it seemed a turning point was reached. They secured five in six before Sunday, a streak that included convincing wins of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the European competition. That’s why the performance against West Ham was so surprising. The problem perhaps is that Newcastle’s approach is extremely intense, high-energy; a minor decrease in energy can have profound effects. Perhaps the pressure of domestic, Champions League and Carabao Cup matches, five games in a fortnight, had taken its toll. The German forward started each of those matches and appeared particularly weary.

Reality of Modern Soccer

That’s the nature of today's the sport. Managers have to be prepared to rotate. The manager has been unfortunate that the forward's injury has left him lacking attacking options but, no matter how valid the explanations, the weekend's performance was inexcusable –especially following scoring first at a ground primed to turn on its home team.

The Newcastle boss will hope it was just a blip, an off-day when all players is off-colour simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to secure the European competition in the future, not to mention eventually launch an actual championship bid, they cannot be as inconsistent as they have been.

Nathan Byrd
Nathan Byrd

A seasoned lottery analyst with over a decade of experience in probability studies and jackpot forecasting.